MPI-ESM-1.2 output from first-phase LAMACLIMA simulations: idealized global land-use scenarios, including cropland expansion, re/afforestation, irrigation, wood harvest, and control.

Guo, Suqi; Havermann, Felix; De Hertog, Steven; Manola, Iris; Seeberg, Gereon

MPI-ESM-1.2 output from first-phase LAMACLIMA simulations: idealized global land-use scenarios, including cropland expansion, re/afforestation, irrigation, wood harvest, and control.

Guo, Suqi et al.

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carbon cycle climate change climate ensemble simulations land cover land cover change land use land use change

Summary: Land use plays a critical role in global mitigation and local adaptation. However, its impacts on local and remote climate and the carbon cycle remain poorly understood across Earth system models (ESMs).

The first-phase simulations of LAMACLIMA assess land-use-induced climate and carbon sensitivity through a coordinated ESM intercomparison. The scenarios do not represent plausible realizations under realistic socio-economic pathways. Instead, they simulate idealized global land-use changes. This approach has two advantages:
1. Simulating large-scale disturbances increases the signal-to-noise ratio. While the idealized nature of the scenarios prevents conclusions about concrete realizations of future global land use, the higher signal-to-noise ratio improves our ability to evaluate the upper bound of land-use impacts.
2. Unlike historical LCLMCs or realistic future scenarios, where changes occur in limited regions, idealized global LCLMCs allow for a comprehensive assessment and comparison of impacts across most regions worldwide.

The first-phase simulations for LAMACLIMA use three Earth System Models (ESMs): the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) version 1.2 (Mauritsen et al., 2019), the Community Earth System Model (CESM) version 2 (Danabasoglu et al., 2020), and the European Community Earth System Model (EC-EARTH) version EC-Earth3-Veg (v3.3.3.1; Döscher et al., 2022).

Each ESM runs five simulations: four idealized global land-use scenarios and one reference control simulation (CTL). Simulations branch from the 2014 CMIP6 historical concentration-driven simulation and span 160 years, with a potential extension of several years. The anthropogenic (trace gases, aerosols, population density) and natural forcing (solar radiation, wildfire, lightning, natural aerosols) are held constant at 2014 levels. The only varying forcing across scenarios is the prescribed land-cover and land-management changes.

The CTL simulation maintains land use at the 2014 level, with no land management (no irrigation or wood harvest). In the cropland expansion (CROP) and re/afforestation (FRST) scenarios, land cover changes to crops or forests on hospitable land, applied to half of the land grid cells in a checkerboard pattern (see Winckler et al., 2017: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0067.1). In the irrigation (IRR) scenario, the CROP scenario is used, with each model’s native irrigation scheme applied to all land-cover change grid cells. In the wood harvest (HARV) scenario, the FRST scenario is used, with extensive wood harvesting applied to all land-cover change grid cells.
For further details, see:
• De Hertog et al., 2023: https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-629-2023
• Guo et al., 2024 [preprint]: https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2387

This dataset comprises MPI-ESM-1.2 output from first-phase simulations. The output of specific simulations is further grouped into subsequent datasets. For example, “MPI-ESM-1.2 output from the first-phase FRST simulation of idealized global forest re/afforestation”.

We use the MPI-ESM1.2-LR climate model, which includes the following components:
Atmosphere model: ECHAM6.3 (Triangular truncation: T63, approx. 1.88°×1.88°, 200 km; 47 vertical levels)
-Land model: JSBACH3.2 (Triangular truncation: T63, approx. 1.88°×1.88°, 200 km)
-Ocean dynamical model: MPIOM1.6 (GR1.5, approx. 150 km; 40 vertical levels)
-Ocean biogeochemistry model: HAMOCC6
-Coupler: OASIS3-MCT
For further details, see:
-Mauritsen et al., 2019: https://doi.org/10.1029/2018MS001400.

The output from these components is prepared using the Climate Model Output Rewriter (CMOR) in accordance with CMIP data conventions.
Project: LAMACLIMA (Output of two-phase Earth system model simulations for LAMACLIMA: idealized global land-use and high-ambition future mitigation land-use scenarios.)
Contact: Suqi Guo (
Suqi.Guo@nullgeographie.uni-muenchen.de
0009-0001-1367-7796)
Felix Havermann (
felix.havermann@nulllmu.de
)
Steven De Hertog (
steven.de.hertog@nullvub.be
)
Spatial Coverage: Longitude -180 to 180 Latitude -90 to 90 Altitude: 100000 Pa to 100 Pa
Temporal Coverage: 2015-01-01 to 2174-12-31
Data Catalog: World Data Center for Climate
Status: metadata only
Creation Date: 2025-04-02
Future Review Date: 2035-04-05

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Cite as: Guo, Suqi; Havermann, Felix; De Hertog, Steven; Manola, Iris; Seeberg, Gereon (2025). MPI-ESM-1.2 output from first-phase LAMACLIMA simulations: idealized global land-use scenarios, including cropland expansion, re/afforestation, irrigation, wood harvest, and control. World Data Center for Climate (WDCC) at DKRZ. https://www.wdc-climate.de/ui/entry?acronym=LC_WP1_MP

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Funding: Belgian Science Policy Office
Grant/Award No: B2/181/P1 - LAnd MAnagement for CLImate Mitigation and Adaptation (LAMACLIMA)
European Commission - Horizon 2020 Framework Programme
Grant/Award No: 776608 - Assessment of Cross(X)-sectoral climate Impacts and pathways for Sustainable transformation
Federal Ministry of Education and Research
Grant/Award No: 01LS1905A - AXIS: Landmanagementstrategien zur Klimavermeidung und Klimaanpassung (LAMACLIMA) - Teilprojekt 1: Koordination, Stakeholder-Einbindung, Emulator- und Szenarien-Entwicklung
Federal Ministry of Education and Research
Grant/Award No: 01LS1905B - AXIS: Landmanagementstrategien zur Klimavermeidung und Klimaanpassung (LAMACLIMA) - Teilprojekt 2: Integrierte Analyse der sektorübergreifenden Wechselwirkungen
Federal Ministry of Education and Research
Grant/Award No: 01LS1905C - AXIS: Landmanagementstrategien zur Klimavermeidung und Klimaanpassung (LAMACLIMA) - Teilprojekt 3: Agrar-ökonomische Modellierung und integrierte Analyse
Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek
Grant/Award No: 438.19.904 - LAnd MAnagement for CLImate Mitigation and Adaptation (LAMACLIMA)
Research Council of Norway
Grant/Award No: 300478 - LAnd MAnagement for CLImate Mitigation and Adaptation

Contact type	Person	ORCID	Organization
Contact	Suqi Guo	0009-0001-1367-7796	Ludwig-Maximilians-University Munich
Contact	Felix Havermann	-	Ludwig-Maximilians-University Munich
Contact	Steven De Hertog	-	Vrije Universiteit Brussel
Author	Suqi Guo	0009-0001-1367-7796	Ludwig-Maximilians-University Munich
Author	Felix Havermann	-	Ludwig-Maximilians-University Munich
Author	Steven De Hertog	-	Vrije Universiteit Brussel
Author	Iris Manola	-	Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
Author	Gereon Seeberg	-	Ludwig-Maximilians-University Munich
Investigator	Suqi Guo	0009-0001-1367-7796	Ludwig-Maximilians-University Munich
Funder	-	-	Federal Ministry of Education and Research
Funder	-	-	Research Council of Norway
Funder	-	-	Belgian Science Policy Office
Funder	-	-	Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek
Funder	-	-	European Commission - Horizon 2020 Framework Programme

Is documented by

[1] DOI De Hertog, Steven J.; Havermann, Felix; Vanderkelen, Inne; Guo, Suqi; Luo, Fei; Manola, Iris; Coumou, Dim; Davin, Edouard L.; Duveiller, Gregory; Lejeune, Quentin; Pongratz, Julia; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Thiery, Wim. (2022). The biogeophysical effects of idealized land cover and land management changes in Earth system models. doi:10.5194/esd-13-1305-2022

[2] DOI Winckler, J.; Reick, C. H.; Pongratz, J. (2017). Robust Identification of Local Biogeophysical Effects of Land-Cover Change in a Global Climate Model. doi:10.1175/jcli-d-16-0067.1

[3] DOI Guo, Suqi; Havermann, Felix; De Hertog, Steven J.; Luo, Fei; Manola, Iris; Raddatz, Thomas; Li, Hongmei; Thiery, Wim; Lejeune, Quentin; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Wårlind, David; Nieradzik, Lars; Pongratz, Julia. (2024). Remote carbon cycle changes are overlooked impacts of land-cover and land management changes. doi:10.5194/egusphere-2024-2387

Is compiled by

[1] DOI Mauritsen, Thorsten; Bader, Jürgen; Becker, Tobias; Behrens, Jörg; Bittner, Matthias; Brokopf, Renate; Brovkin, Victor; Claussen, Martin; Crueger, Traute; Esch, Monika; Fast, Irina; Fiedler, Stephanie; Fläschner, Dagmar; Gayler, Veronika; Giorgetta, Marco; Goll, Daniel S.; Haak, Helmuth; Hagemann, Stefan; Hedemann, Christopher; Hohenegger, Cathy; Ilyina, Tatiana; Jahns, Thomas; Jimenéz‐de‐la‐Cuesta, Diego; Jungclaus, Johann; Kleinen, Thomas; Kloster, Silvia; Kracher, Daniela; Kinne, Stefan; Kleberg, Deike; Lasslop, Gitta; Kornblueh, Luis; Marotzke, Jochem; Matei, Daniela; Meraner, Katharina; Mikolajewicz, Uwe; Modali, Kameswarrao; Möbis, Benjamin; Müller, Wolfgang A.; Nabel, Julia E. M. S.; Nam, Christine C. W.; Notz, Dirk; Nyawira, Sarah‐Sylvia; Paulsen, Hanna; Peters, Karsten; Pincus, Robert; Pohlmann, Holger; Pongratz, Julia; Popp, Max; Raddatz, Thomas Jürgen; Rast, Sebastian; Redler, Rene; Reick, Christian H.; Rohrschneider, Tim; Schemann, Vera; Schmidt, Hauke; Schnur, Reiner; Schulzweida, Uwe; Six, Katharina D.; Stein, Lukas; Stemmler, Irene; Stevens, Bjorn; Storch, Jin‐Song; Tian, Fangxing; Voigt, Aiko; Vrese, Philipp; Wieners, Karl‐Hermann; Wilkenskjeld, Stiig; Winkler, Alexander; Roeckner, Erich. (2019). Developments in the MPI-M Earth System Model version 1.2 (MPI-ESM1.2) and Its Response to Increasing CO2. doi:10.1029/2018ms001400

Parent

Output of first-phase Earth system model simulations for LAMACLIMA: idealized global land-use scenarios, including cropland expansion, re/afforestation, irrigation, wood harvest, and reference control

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Parent project(s)

Output of two-phase Earth system model simulations for LAMACLIMA: idealized global land-use and high-ambition future mitigation land-use scenarios.

[Entry acronym: LC_WP1_MP] [Entry id: 5285585]