IPCC AR6 WGI Sea Level Projections

doi:10.26050/WDCC/AR6.IPCC-DDC_AR6_Sup_SLPr

Garner, Gregory et al.

ExperimentDOI
Summary
These data sets contain the sea level projections associated with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report. The dataset groups contain the full set of samples for the global projections (see IPCC AR6 WGI Sea Level Projections global) as well as summary relative sea level projections (see IPCC AR6 WGI Sea Level Projections regional and, without the AR6 estimate of background sea level process rates, see IPCC AR6 WGI Sea Level Projections regional novlm). The confidence output files correspond most directly to the figures and tables in the report.
The IPCC AR6 sea level change projection files are provided in a simplified format but represent a more complicated workflow involving combinations of multiple lines of evidence for the various individual contributors to sea level change. It's highly recommended using the data as provided in the confidence output files to remain consistent with the assessment in IPCC AR6 Chapter 9 (see IPCC AR6 WGI Sea Level Projections HowTos for details).

Required Acknowledgements and Citation: In order to document the impact of these sea level rise projections, users of the data are obligated to cite chapter 9 of WGI contribution to the IPCC AR6, the FACTS model description paper, and the version of the data set used. When using these data in a publication, please include the information provided in IPCC AR6 WGI Sea Level Projections Acknowledgments.

Disclaimer: The data producers and data providers make no warranty, either express or implied, including, but not limited to, warranties of merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose. All liabilities arising from the supply of the information (including any liability arising in negligence) are excluded to the fullest extent permitted by law.

Regional projections can also be accessed through the NASA/IPCC Sea Level Projections Tool at https://sealevel.nasa.gov/ipcc-ar6-sea-level-projection-tool. See https://zenodo.org/communities/ipcc-ar6-sea-level-projections for additional related data sets.
Project
IPCC-DDC_AR6_Supplements (IPCC Data Distribution Centre : Supplementary data sets for the Sixth Assessment Report)
Contact
Robert Kopp (
 robert.kopp@nullrutgers.edu
0000-0003-4016-9428)

Aimée Slangen (
 aimee.slangen@nullnioz.nl
0000-0001-6268-6683)
Spatial Coverage
Longitude -180 to 180 Latitude -90 to 90
Temporal Coverage
2020-01-01 to 2300-12-31 (gregorian)
Use constraints
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)
Data Catalog
World Data Center for Climate
Size
10.90 GiB (11701334484 Byte)
Format
NetCDF, netCDF.zip
Status
completely archived
Creation Date
Future Review Date
2032-05-14
Cite as
Garner, Gregory; Hermans, Tim H.J.; Kopp, Robert; Slangen, Aimée; Edwards, Tasmin; Levermann, Anders; Nowicki, Sophie; Palmer, Matthew D.; Smith, Chris; Fox-Kemper, Baylor; Hewitt, Helene; Xiao, Cunde; Aðalgeirsdóttir, Guðfinna; Drijfhout, Sybren; Golledge, Nicholas; Hemer, Marc; Krinner, Gerhard; Mix, Alan; Notz, Dirk; Nurhati, Intan; Ruiz, Lucas; Sallée, Jean-Baptiste; Yu, Yongqiang; Hua, L.; Palmer, Tamzin; Pearson, Brodie (2023). IPCC AR6 WGI Sea Level Projections. World Data Center for Climate (WDCC) at DKRZ. https://doi.org/10.26050/WDCC/AR6.IPCC-DDC_AR6_Sup_SLPr

BibTeX RIS
Funding
Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
Natural Environment Research Council
European Union
Description
Sea level projections considering only processes for which projections can be made with at least medium confidence are provided, relative to the period 1995–2014, for five Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios and five different future Global Mean Surface Temperatures (from 2080-2100). The SSP scenarios are described in sections TS1.3 and 1.6 and Cross-Chapter Box 1.4 of the Working Group 1 contribution.
In the sea level projections, likely ranges are assessed based upon the combination of uncertainty in the temperature change associated with an emissions scenarios and uncertainty in the relationships between temperature and drivers of projected sea level change, such as thermal expansion, ocean dynamics, and glacier and ice sheet mass loss. In general, 17th-83rd percentile results are interpreted as likely ranges, reflecting the use of the term likely to refer to a probability of at least 66%. Note, Fewer global climate model simulations are available after 2100, which can lead to discontinuity in projections between 2100 and immediately following decades, particularly in regions where dynamic sea level effects are an important contributor.
To indicate the potential impact of deeply uncertain ice sheet processes, about which there is currently a low level of agreement and limited evidence, low confidence projections are also provided for SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5. For both the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, the low confidence projections integrate information from the Structured Expert Judgement study of Bamber et al. (2019). For the Antarctic ice sheet, the low confidence projections> projections also incorporate results from a simulation study that incorporates Marine Ice Cliff Instability (DeConto et al., 2021). The results shown are 17th-83rd percentile projections, but are not assessed as likely ranges because of the low agreement and limited evidence. See section 9.6 and Box 9.4 for more details. For more information on the use of likelihood and confidence language by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, see Box 1.1.
(in Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/)
Description
Technical Quality results

1. General Checks
a. number of datasets > 0 -> passed
b. dataset size > 0 -> passed
c. all datasets and the experiment/dsgroup are completely archived -> passed
d. datasets are accessible -> spot-checked -> passed

2. Completeness Checks
a. number of datasets consistent with provided datasets -> passed
b. experiments/dsgroup is assigned a data citation -> passed
c. all datasets are assigned data licenses -> passed
d. agreed references are complete -> passed
e. agreed keywords are assigned to experiment/dsgroup and datasets -> passed
f. experiment/dsgroup has contacts -> passed
g. experiment/dsgroup and all datasets have a coverage information -> passed
h. experiment/dsgroup has a summary/abstract -> passed
i. experiment/dsgroup has documented scientific and technical quality information -> passed
j. datasets are assigned variables and if applicable CF Standard Names -> passed

3. Consistency Checks
a. correctness of licenses -> passed
b. correctness of data citation -> passed
c. correctness of contacts -> passed
d. author contact and citation information is consistent -> passed
e. coverages of experiment/dsgroup and datasets are consistent -> passed
f. summary/abstract content contains agreed DDC information -> passed
g. CF Standard Names and variable names are consistent to dataset content -> passed
Method
TQA checklist
Method Description
Quality checks performed by DDC and applied for IPCC intermediate data sets: https://www.wdc-climate.de/ui/project?acronym=IPCC-DDC_AR6_Supplements
Method Url
Result Date
2023-04-17
Contact typePersonORCIDOrganization
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data entry is identical to referenced publication

[1] DOI Garner, G. G.; Hermans, T.; Kopp, R. E.; Slangen, A. B. A.; Edwards, T. L.; Levermann, A.; Nowicki, S.; Palmer, M. D.; Smith, C.; Fox-Kemper, B.; Hewitt, H. T.; Xiao, C.; Aðalgeirsdóttir, G.; Drijfhout, S. S.; Golledge, N. R.; Hemer, M.; Krinner, G.; Mix, A.; Notz, D.; Nurhati, I. S.; Ruiz, L.; Sallée, J-B.; Yu, Y.; Hua, L.; Palmer, T.; Pearson, B. (2021). IPCC AR6 Sea Level Projections. doi:10.5281/zenodo.5914710
[2] DOI Garner, G. G.; Hermans, T.; Kopp, R. E.; Slangen, A. B. A.; Edwards, T. L.; Levermann, A.; Nowicki, S.; Palmer, M. D.; Smith, C.; Fox-Kemper, B.; Hewitt, H. T.; Xiao, C.; Aðalgeirsdóttir, G.; Drijfhout, S. S.; Golledge, N. R.; Hemer, M.; Krinner, G.; Mix, A.; Notz, D.; Nurhati, I. S.; Ruiz, L.; Sallée, J-B.; Yu, Y.; Hua, L.; Palmer, T.; Pearson, B. (2021). IPCC AR6 Sea Level Projections. doi:10.5281/zenodo.5914709

Cites

[1] DOI Fox-Kemper, B.; Hewitt, H.T.; Xiao, C.; Aðalgeirsdóttir, G.; Drijfhout, S.S.; Edwards, T.L.; Golledge, N.R.; Hemer, M.; Kopp, R.E.; Krinner, G.; Mix, A.; Notz, D.; Nowicki, S.; Nurhati, I.S.; Ruiz, L.; Sallée, J.-B.; Slangen, A.B.A.; Yu, Y. (2023). Ocean, Cryosphere and Sea Level Change. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. doi:10.1017/9781009157896.011

Is supplemented by

[1] DOI Smith, Chris. (2023). IPCC AR6 WGI Sea Level Projections Chapter 7 Support. doi:10.26050/WDCC/AR6.IPCC-DDC_AR6_Sup_SLPr_Supp

Is documented by

[1] DOI Garner, G.G.; Kopp, R.E.; Hermans, T.; Slangen, A.B.A.; Koubbe, G.; Turilli, M.; Jha, S.; Edwards, T.L.; Levermann, A.; Nowicki, S.; Palmer, M.D.; Smith, C. (2022). Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS) modules, scripts, and data for the IPCC AR6 sea level projections. doi:10.5281/zenodo.6419954
[2] DOI Kopp, R.E. (2021). Location List for IPCC AR6 Sea Level Projections. doi:10.5281/zenodo.6382549
[3] DOI Garner, Gregory; Hermans, Tim H.J.; Kopp, Robert; Slangen, Aimée; Edwards, Tasmin; Levermann, Anders; Nowicki, Sophie; Palmer, Matthew D.; Smith, Chris; Fox-Kemper, Baylor; Hewitt, Helene; Xiao, Cunde; Aðalgeirsdóttir, Guðfinna; Drijfhout, Sybren; Golledge, Nicholas; Hemer, Marc; Krinner, Gerhard; Mix, Alan; Notz, Dirk; Nurhati, Intan; Ruiz, Lucas; Sallée, Jean-Baptiste; Yu, Yongqiang; Hua, L.; Palmer, Tamzin; Pearson, Brodie. (2023). IPCC AR6 WGI Relative Sea Level Projection Distributions. doi:10.26050/WDCC/AR6.IPCC-DDC_AR6_Sup_Dist
[4] DOI Garner, Gregory; Hermans, Tim H.J.; Kopp, Robert; Slangen, Aimée; Edwards, Tasmin; Levermann, Anders; Nowicki, Sophie; Palmer, Matthew D.; Smith, Chris; Fox-Kemper, Baylor; Hewitt, Helene; Xiao, Cunde; Aðalgeirsdóttir, Guðfinna; Drijfhout, Sybren; Golledge, Nicholas; Hemer, Marc; Krinner, Gerhard; Mix, Alan; Notz, Dirk; Nurhati, Intan; Ruiz, Lucas; Sallée, Jean-Baptiste; Yu, Yongqiang; Hua, L.; Palmer, Tamzin; Pearson, Brodie. (2023). IPCC AR6 WGI Relative Sea Level Projection Distributions without Background Component. doi:10.26050/WDCC/AR6.IPCC-DDC_AR6_Sup_DistBC
[5] DOI Garner, Gregory; Hermans, Tim H.J.; Kopp, Robert; Slangen, Aimée; Edwards, Tasmin; Levermann, Anders; Nowicki, Sophie; Palmer, Matthew D.; Smith, Chris; Fox-Kemper, Baylor; Hewitt, Helene; Xiao, Cunde; Aðalgeirsdóttir, Guðfinna; Drijfhout, Sybren; Golledge, Nicholas; Hemer, Marc; Krinner, Gerhard; Mix, Alan; Notz, Dirk; Nurhati, Intan; Ruiz, Lucas; Sallée, Jean-Baptiste; Yu, Yongqiang; Hua, L.; Palmer, Tamzin; Pearson, Brodie. (2023). IPCC AR6 WGI Relative Sea Level Projection P-Boxes. doi:10.26050/WDCC/AR6.IPCC-DDC_AR6_Sup_PBox

Attached Dataset Groups ( 3 )

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[Entry acronym: IPCC-DDC_AR6_Sup_SLPr] [Entry id: 3895460]