IPCC AR6 WGI Sea Level Projections

Kopp, Robert; Slangen, Aimée

These data sets contain the sea level projections associated with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report offering the full set of samples for the global projections (see IPCC AR6 WGI Sea Level Projections global) as well as summary relative sea level projections (see IPCC AR6 WGI Sea Level Projections regional) and, without the AR6 estimate of background sea level process rates (see IPCC AR6 WGI Sea Level Projections regional novlm). The confidence output files correspond most directly to the figures and tables in the report.

Regional projections can also be accessed through the NASA/IPCC Sea Level Projections Tool at https://sealevel.nasa.gov/ipcc-ar6-sea-level-projection-tool.

See https://zenodo.org/communities/ipcc-ar6-sea-level-projections for additional related data sets.

The IPCC AR6 sea level change projection files are provided in a simplified format but represent a more complicated workflow involving combinations of multiple lines of evidence for the various individual contributors to sea level change. We highly recommend using the data as provided in these confidence output files to remain consistent with the assessment in IPCC AR6 Chapter 9.

The development of the sea level rise projections was supported by multiple funders, including the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (grants 80NSSC17K0698, 80NSSC20K1724 and 80NSSC21K0322 and JPL task 105393.509496., the U.S. National Science Foundation (grant ICER-1663807), the U.K. Natural Environment Research Council (grant NE/T009381/1), NIOZ Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research, PROTECT (which has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement no. 869304), and UK Natural Environment Research Council grant NE/T007443/1. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme, which, through its Working Group on Coupled Modelling, coordinated and promoted CMIP6. We thank the climate modeling groups for producing and making available their model output, the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) for archiving the data and providing access, and the multiple funding agencies who support CMIP6 and ESGF.
IPCC-DDC_AR6_Supplements (IPCC Data Distribution Centre : Supplementary data sets for the Sixth Assessment Report)
Robert Kopp (

Aimée Slangen (
Spatial Coverage
Longitude 0 to 360 Latitude -90 to 90
Temporal Coverage
2020-01-01 to 2300-12-31 (gregorian)
Use constraints
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)
Data Catalog
World Data Center for Climate
metadata only
Creation Date
Future Review Date
Cite as
Kopp, Robert; Slangen, Aimée (2022). IPCC AR6 WGI Sea Level Projections. World Data Center for Climate (WDCC) at DKRZ. https://cera-www.dkrz.de/WDCC/ui/Compact.jsp?acronym=IPCC-DDC_AR6_Sup_SLPr

[Entry acronym: IPCC-DDC_AR6_Sup_SLPr] [Entry id: 3895460]
Contact typePersonORCIDInstitute
Contact Robert Kopp 0000-0003-4016-9428Rutgers University
Contact Aimée Slangen 0000-0001-6268-6683Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research
Author Dr. Gregory Garner 0000-0001-7864-1535Gro Intelligence
Author Tim H.J. Hermans 0000-0002-0253-9291Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research
Author Robert Kopp 0000-0003-4016-9428Rutgers University
Author Aimée Slangen 0000-0001-6268-6683Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research
Author Anders Levermann 0000-0003-4432-4704Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung
Author Matthew D. Palmer 0000-0001-7422-198XHadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research - UK Met Office
Author Christopher J. Smith 0000-0003-0599-4633University of Leeds
Author Baylor Fox-Kemper 0000-0002-2871-2048Brown University
Author Helene Hewitt-Met Office Hadley Centre
Author Cunde Xiao 0000-0002-1706-4794Beijing Normal University
Author Sybren Drijfhout 0000-0001-5325-7350Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute
Author Nicholas Golledge 0000-0001-7676-8970Victoria University of Wellington
Author Gerhard Krinner 0000-0002-2959-5920Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique en Alpes
Author Dr. Dirk Notz 0000-0003-0365-5654Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie
Author Sophie Nowicki 0000-0001-6328-5590University of Buffalo
Author Lucas Ruiz 0000-0002-8837-436XInstituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias (IANIGLA)
Author Brodie Pearson 0000-0002-0202-0481Oregon State University
Author Tasmin Edwards--
Author Guðfinna Aðalgeirsdóttir--
Author Marc Hemer--
Author Alan Mix--
Author Intan Nurhati--
Author Jean-Baptiste Sallée--
Author Yongqiang Yu--
Author Tamzin Palmer--
Investigator Robert Kopp 0000-0003-4016-9428Rutgers University
Funder --European Union
Funder --Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research
Funder --Natural Environment Research Council
Funder --National Science Foundation
Funder --National Aeronautics and Space Administration


[1] DOI Fox-Kemper, B.; Hewitt, H.T.; Xiao, C.; Aðalgeirsdóttir, G.; Drijfhout, S.S.; Edwards, T.L.; Golledge, N.R.; Hemer, M.; Kopp, R.E.; Krinner, G.; Mix, A.; Notz, D.; Nowicki, S.; Nurhati, I.S.; Ruiz, L.; Sallée, J.-B.; Slangen, A.B.A.; Yu, Y. (2021). Ocean, Cryosphere and Sea Level Change. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. doi:10.1017/9781009157896.011

Is supplemented by

[1] DOI Kopp, R.E. (2021). Location List for IPCC AR6 Sea Level Projections. doi:10.5281/zenodo.6382549

Is compiled by

[1] DOI Garner, G.G.; Kopp, R.E.; Hermans, T.; Slangen, A.B.A.; Koubbe, G.; Turilli, M.; Jha, S.; Edwards, T.L.; Levermann, A.; Nowicki, S.; Palmer, M.D.; Smith, C. (2022). Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS) modules, scripts, and data for the IPCC AR6 sea level projections. doi:10.5281/zenodo.6419954

Is Also Published As

[1] DOI Garner, G. G.; Hermans, T.; Kopp, R. E.; Slangen, A. B. A.; Edwards, T. L.; Levermann, A.; Nowicki, S.; Palmer, M. D.; Smith, C.; Fox-Kemper, B.; Hewitt, H. T.; Xiao, C.; Aðalgeirsdóttir, G.; Drijfhout, S. S.; Golledge, N. R.; Hemer, M.; Krinner, G.; Mix, A.; Notz, D.; Nurhati, I. S.; Ruiz, L.; Sallée, J-B.; Yu, Y.; Hua, L.; Palmer, T.; Pearson, B. (2021). IPCC AR6 Sea Level Projections. doi:10.5281/zenodo.6382554

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