IPCC AR6 WGI assessed GSAT Projections


Milinski, Sebastian; Marotzke, Jochem

These data sets contain the assessed Global Surface Air Temperature (GSAT) projections and all input data and instructions necessary to reproduce the assessed GSAT projections in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report (Figure 4.11, IPCC AR6 WGI). The constrained CMIP6 projections are based on the methods from three publications calculating the global mean near surface air temperature relative to the average over the period 1995–2014. They are described in box 4.1. The Effective Radiative Forcing (ERF) time series are reproduced from IPCC WGI chapter 7 and included to facilitate reproduction of the analysis. They are uncoupled to any GSAT change. ERF quantifies the energy gained or lost by the earth system following an imposed perturbation (for instance in green house gases, aerosols or solar irradiance). As such it is a fundamental driver of changes in the earth’s TOA energy budget. ERF is determined by the change in the net downward radiative flux at the top of atmosphere (box 7.1) after the system has adjusted to the perturbation but excluding the radiative response to changes in surface temperature (Figure 7.3, IPCC AR6 WGI). For a detailed description of the ERF time series, please refer to chapter 7 (https://github.com/IPCC-WG1/Chapter-7).

Disclaimer: The data producers and data providers make no warranty, either express or implied, including, but not limited to, warranties of merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose. All liabilities arising from the supply of the information (including any liability arising in negligence) are excluded to the fullest extent permitted by law.

Required Acknowledgements and Citation: In order to document the impact of assessed Global Surface Air Temperature, users of the data are obligated to cite chapter 4 of WGI contribution to the IPCC AR6.
IPCC-DDC_AR6_Supplements (IPCC Data Distribution Centre : Supplementary data sets for the Sixth Assessment Report)
Sebastian Milinski (

Prof. Jochem Marotzke (
Spatial Coverage
Longitude -180 to 180 Latitude -90 to 90
Temporal Coverage
1850-01-01 to 2100-12-31 (gregorian)
Use constraints
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)
Data Catalog
World Data Center for Climate
44.43 MiB (46590522 Byte)
NetCDF, zip-file
completely archived
Creation Date
Future Review Date
Cite as
Milinski, Sebastian; Marotzke, Jochem (2023). IPCC AR6 WGI assessed GSAT Projections. World Data Center for Climate (WDCC) at DKRZ. https://doi.org/10.26050/WDCC/AR6.IPCC-DDC_AR6_Sup_GSATPr

Data and code have been quality-checked by the authors. Figure 4.11 of IPCC WGI AR6 can be reproduced using the Jupyter Notebook provided in IPCC-WGI's github https://github.com/IPCC-WG1/Chapter-4_Figure4.11/blob/v1.0.3/figure4.11.ipynb . A detailed description of the analysis, results, and implications can be found in Box 4.1 and section 4.3.4.
Technical Quality results

1. General Checks
a. number of datasets > 0 -> passed
b. dataset size > 0 -> passed
c. all datasets and the experiment/dsgroup are completely archived -> passed
d. datasets are accessible -> spot-checked -> passed

2. Completeness Checks
a. number of datasets consistent with provided datasets -> passed
b. experiments/dsgroup is assigned a data citation -> passed
c. all datasets are assigned data licenses -> passed
d. agreed references are complete -> passed
e. agreed keywords are assigned to experiment/dsgroup and datasets -> passed
f. experiment/dsgroup has contacts -> passed
g. experiment/dsgroup and all datasets have a coverage information -> passed
h. experiment/dsgroup has a summary/abstract -> passed
i. experiment/dsgroup has documented scientific and technical quality information -> passed
j. datasets are assigned variables and if applicable CF Standard Names -> passed

3. Consistency Checks
a. correctness of licenses -> passed
b. correctness of data citation -> passed
c. correctness of contacts -> passed
d. author contact and citation information is consistent -> passed
e. coverages of experiment/dsgroup and datasets are consistent -> passed
f. summary/abstract content contains agreed DDC information -> passed
g. CF Standard Names and variable names are consistent to dataset content -> passed
TQA checklist
Method Description
Quality checks performed by DDC and applied for IPCC intermediate data sets: https://www.wdc-climate.de/ui/project?acronym=IPCC-DDC_AR6_Supplements
Method Url
Result Date
Contact typePersonORCIDOrganization

data entry is identical to referenced publication

[1] DOI Milinski, Sebastian; Marotzke, Jochem. (2022). IPCC AR6 WGI - Figure 4.11 (v1.0.3). doi:10.5281/zenodo.7113163


[1] DOI Lee, J.-Y.; Marotzke, J.; Bala, G.; Cao, L.; Corti, S.; Dunne, J.P.; Engelbrecht, F.; Fischer, E.; Fyfe, J.C; Jones, C.; Maycock, A.; Mutemi, J.; Ndiaye, O.; Panickal, S.; Zhou,T. (2023). Future Global Climate: Scenario-Based Projections and Near-Term Information. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. doi:10.1017/9781009157896.006
[2] Milinski, Sebastian; Marotzke, Jochem. (2022). Chapter 4 of the Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report - data for Figure 4.11 (v1.0.3). https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/figures/chapter-4/figure-4-11

Is documented by

[1] DOI Tokarska, Katarzyna B.; Stolpe, Martin B.; Sippel, Sebastian Sippel; Fischer, Erich M.; Smith, Christopher J.; Lehner, Flavio; Knutti, Reto. (2020). Past warming trend constrains future warming in CMIP6 models. doi:10.1126/sciadv.aaz9549
[2] DOI Liang, Yongxiao; Gillet, Nathan P. Gillett; Monahan, Adam H. (2020). Climate Model Projections of 21st Century Global Warming Constrained Using the Observed Warming Trend. doi:10.1029/2019GL086757
[3] DOI Ribes, Aurélien; Qasmi, Saïd; Gillet, Nathan P. (2021). Making climate projections conditional on historical observations. doi:10.1126/sciadv.abc0671

Attached Datasets ( 5 )

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[Entry acronym: IPCC-DDC_AR6_Sup_GSATPr] [Entry id: 3952954]