IPCC AR6 WGI Relative Sea Level Projection Distributions

doi:10.26050/WDCC/AR6.IPCC-DDC_AR6_Sup_Dist

Garner, Gregory et al.

ExperimentDOI
Summary
This data set contains detailed elements the sea level projections associated with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report. In particular, it contains relative sea level projection distributions for all the workflows described in AR6 WGI 9.6.3.2, as well as distributions for the components contributing to relative sea level change.
These data may be of use for users who want to substitute their own estimates. Regional projections can also be accessed through the NASA/IPCC Sea Level Projections Tool at https://sealevel.nasa.gov/ipcc-ar6-sea-level-projection-tool. See https://zenodo.org/communities/ipcc-ar6-sea-level-projections for additional related data sets.
Project
IPCC-DDC_AR6_Supplements (IPCC Data Distribution Centre : Supplementary data sets for the Sixth Assessment Report)
Contact
Robert Kopp (
 robert.kopp@nullrutgers.edu
0000-0003-4016-9428)
Spatial Coverage
Longitude -180 to 180 Latitude -90 to 90
Temporal Coverage
2005-01-01 to 2300-12-31 (gregorian)
Use constraints
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)
Data Catalog
World Data Center for Climate
Size
39.31 GiB (42204021748 Byte)
Format
zip-file
Status
completely archived
Creation Date
Future Review Date
2032-11-24
Cite as
Garner, Gregory; Hermans, Tim H.J.; Kopp, Robert; Slangen, Aimée; Edwards, Tasmin; Levermann, Anders; Nowicki, Sophie; Palmer, Matthew D.; Smith, Chris; Fox-Kemper, Baylor; Hewitt, Helene; Xiao, Cunde; Aðalgeirsdóttir, Guðfinna; Drijfhout, Sybren; Golledge, Nicholas; Hemer, Marc; Krinner, Gerhard; Mix, Alan; Notz, Dirk; Nurhati, Intan; Ruiz, Lucas; Sallée, Jean-Baptiste; Yu, Yongqiang; Hua, L.; Palmer, Tamzin; Pearson, Brodie (2023). IPCC AR6 WGI Relative Sea Level Projection Distributions. World Data Center for Climate (WDCC) at DKRZ. https://doi.org/10.26050/WDCC/AR6.IPCC-DDC_AR6_Sup_Dist

BibTeX RIS
Funding
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
Natural Environment Research Council
European Union
Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research
Description
Sea level projections considering only processes for which projections can be made with at least medium confidence are provided, relative to the period 1995–2014, for five Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios and five different future Global Mean Surface Temperatures (from 2080-2100). The SSP scenarios are described in sections TS1.3 and 1.6 and Cross-Chapter Box 1.4 of the Working Group 1 contribution.
In the sea level projections, likely ranges are assessed based upon the combination of uncertainty in the temperature change associated with an emissions scenarios and uncertainty in the relationships between temperature and drivers of projected sea level change, such as thermal expansion, ocean dynamics, and glacier and ice sheet mass loss. In general, 17th-83rd percentile results are interpreted as likely ranges, reflecting the use of the term likely to refer to a probability of at least 66%. Note, Fewer global climate model simulations are available after 2100, which can lead to discontinuity in projections between 2100 and immediately following decades, particularly in regions where dynamic sea level effects are an important contributor.
To indicate the potential impact of deeply uncertain ice sheet processes, about which there is currently a low level of agreement and limited evidence, low confidence projections are also provided for SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5. For both the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, the low confidence projections integrate information from the Structured Expert Judgement study of Bamber et al. (2019). For the Antarctic ice sheet, the low confidence projections> projections also incorporate results from a simulation study that incorporates Marine Ice Cliff Instability (DeConto et al., 2021). The results shown are 17th-83rd percentile projections, but are not assessed as likely ranges because of the low agreement and limited evidence. See section 9.6 and Box 9.4 for more details. For more information on the use of likelihood and confidence language by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, see Box 1.1.
(in Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/)
Description
Technical Quality results

1. General Checks
a. number of datasets > 0 -> passed
b. dataset size > 0 -> passed
c. all datasets and the experiment/dsgroup are completely archived -> passed
d. datasets are accessible -> spot-checked -> passed

2. Completeness Checks
a. number of datasets consistent with provided datasets -> passed
b. experiments/dsgroup is assigned a data citation -> passed
c. all datasets are assigned data licenses -> passed
d. agreed references are complete -> passed
e. agreed keywords are assigned to experiment/dsgroup and datasets -> passed
f. experiment/dsgroup has contacts -> passed
g. experiment/dsgroup and all datasets have a coverage information -> passed
h. experiment/dsgroup has a summary/abstract -> passed
i. experiment/dsgroup has documented scientific and technical quality information -> passed
j. datasets are assigned variables and if applicable CF Standard Names -> passed

3. Consistency Checks
a. correctness of licenses -> passed
b. correctness of data citation -> passed
c. correctness of contacts -> passed
d. author contact and citation information is consistent -> passed
e. coverages of experiment/dsgroup and datasets are consistent -> passed
f. summary/abstract content contains agreed DDC information -> passed
g. CF Standard Names and variable names are consistent to dataset content -> passed
Method
TQA checklist
Method Description
Quality checks performed by DDC and applied for IPCC intermediate data sets: https://www.wdc-climate.de/ui/project?acronym=IPCC-DDC_AR6_Supplements
Method Url
Result Date
2023-04-17
Contact typePersonORCIDOrganization
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data entry is identical to referenced publication

[1] DOI Kopp, Robert E. (2021). IPCC AR6 Relative Sea Level Projection Distributions. doi:10.5281/zenodo.5914932
[2] DOI Kopp, Robert E. (2021). IPCC AR6 Relative Sea Level Projection Distributions. doi:10.5281/zenodo.5914931

Cites

[1] DOI Fox-Kemper, B.; Hewitt, H.T.; Xiao, C.; Aðalgeirsdóttir, G.; Drijfhout, S.S.; Edwards, T.L.; Golledge, N.R.; Hemer, M.; Kopp, R.E.; Krinner, G.; Mix, A.; Notz, D.; Nowicki, S.; Nurhati, I.S.; Ruiz, L.; Sallée, J.-B.; Slangen, A.B.A.; Yu, Y. (2023). Ocean, Cryosphere and Sea Level Change. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. doi:10.1017/9781009157896.011

Is documented by

[1] DOI Garner, Gregory; Hermans, Tim H.J.; Kopp, Robert; Slangen, Aimée; Edwards, Tasmin; Levermann, Anders; Nowicki, Sophie; Palmer, Matthew D.; Smith, Chris; Fox-Kemper, Baylor; Hewitt, Helene; Xiao, Cunde; Aðalgeirsdóttir, Guðfinna; Drijfhout, Sybren; Golledge, Nicholas; Hemer, Marc; Krinner, Gerhard; Mix, Alan; Notz, Dirk; Nurhati, Intan; Ruiz, Lucas; Sallée, Jean-Baptiste; Yu, Yongqiang; Hua, L.; Palmer, Tamzin; Pearson, Brodie. (2023). IPCC AR6 WGI Sea Level Projections. doi:10.26050/WDCC/AR6.IPCC-DDC_AR6_Sup_SLPr
[2] DOI Garner, G. G.; Hermans, T.; Kopp, R. E.; Slangen, A. B. A.; Edwards, T. L.; Levermann, A.; Nowicki, S.; Palmer, M. D.; Smith, C.; Fox-Kemper, B.; Hewitt, H. T.; Xiao, C.; Aðalgeirsdóttir, G.; Drijfhout, S. S.; Golledge, N. R.; Hemer, M.; Krinner, G.; Mix, A.; Notz, D.; Nurhati, I. S.; Ruiz, L.; Sallée, J-B.; Yu, Y.; Hua, L.; Palmer, T.; Pearson, B. (2021). IPCC AR6 Sea Level Projections. doi:10.5281/zenodo.5914710

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[Entry acronym: IPCC-DDC_AR6_Sup_Dist] [Entry id: 3962445]