Maximum Likelihood Estimates of Temperatures using Data from the Dynamically Consistent Ensemble of Temperature (Version 1.2)

Calvert, Bruce

Experiment
amplificationbias-correctionclimate changeEl Niñoobservational datasea iceTemperature
Summary
DCENT_MLE_v1.2 is a dataset of monthly gridded surface temperatures for the Earth during the instrumental period (since 1850). The name ‘DCENT_MLE_v1.2’ reflects the dataset’s use of maximum likelihood estimation and observational data primarily from the Dynamically Consistent Ensemble of Temperature (DCENT) (Chan, Gebbie, Huybers and Kent, 2024). Source datasets used to create DCENT_MLE_v1.2 include land surface air temperatures of Chan, Gebbie and Huybers (2024), non-infilled DCLSAT, and GHCNv4; sea surface temperatures of DCSST; sea ice coverage of HadISST2; land mask data of OSTIAv2; surface elevation data of GMTED2010; and climate model output of CCSM4 for a pre-industrial control simulation. DCENT_MLE_v1.2 was generated using information from the DCENT project, the Met Office Hadley Centre, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the E.U. Copernicus Marine Service, the U.S. Geological Survey, and the University Corporation of Atmospheric Research. Results of sensitivity tests using alternate sea ice source datasets from the Japanese Meteorological Agency (COBE-SST3) and the National Snow and Ice Data Center (modified G10010v2 appended with G02202v6) are also available.

DCENT_MLE_v1.2 uses the approach of HadCRU_MLE_v1.2 (https://doi.org/10.26050/WDCC/HadCRU_MLE_v1.2), which is described in “Improving global temperature datasets to better account for non-uniform warming” (https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4791), but uses different source data. Additional details about DCENT_MLE_v1.2 are available in the DCENT_MLE_v1.0 information document. The primary motivation to develop HadCRU_MLE_v1.0 was to better account for spatially nonuniform warming across the planet by fitting an amplification function to observations to better account for spatially nonuniform warming trends, and by using differences in temperature climatologies and temperature anomalies between open sea and sea ice regions to better account for the impacts of changes in sea ice concentrations.

DCENT_MLE_v1.2 includes mean surface temperature anomalies for each month from 1850 to 2025 and for each 5° latitude by 5° longitude grid cell. The maximum likelihood estimation approach allows for the estimated field of surface temperature anomalies to be temporally and spatially complete for the entire instrumental period and for the entire surface of the Earth. A 5° by 5° gridded 1982-2014 temperature climatology is available, which was produced by blending an extension of the DCLSAT temperature climatology for land and sea ice regions with the DCSST temperature climatology for open sea regions. Other information of DCENT_MLE_v1.2 is available, including model parameters, the estimated amplification function, the internal variability pattern, the land area fractions, and the impacts of sea ice concentrations and the El Niño Southern Oscillation on surface temperature anomalies.

DCENT_MLE_v1.2 is an annual update to extend DCENT_MLE until the end of 2025. The median estimate of the change in global mean surface temperature change from 1850-1900 to 2025 is 1.61 °C, with a 95% confidence interval of [1.47,1.75] °C. Future versions of DCENT_MLE may become available to extend the temporal coverage beyond 2025.
Project
DCENT_MLE (Maximum Likelihood Estimates of Temperatures using Data from the Dynamically Consistent Ensemble of Temperature)
Contact
Mr. Bruce T. T. Calvert (
 brucetcalvert@nullgmail.com
 0000-0002-1124-9632)
Spatial Coverage
Longitude -180 to 180 Latitude -90 to 90
Temporal Coverage
1850-01-01 to 2025-12-31 (gregorian)
Use constraints
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)
Data Catalog
World Data Center for Climate
Format
NetCDF, ascii
Status
metadata only
Creation Date
Review Date
2026-03-06
Previous Version(s)
doi:10.26050/WDCC/DCENT_MLE_v1_0
doi:10.26050/WDCC/DCENT_MLE_v1_1
Find data Export dataset acronyms
Cite as
Calvert, Bruce (2026). Maximum Likelihood Estimates of Temperatures using Data from the Dynamically Consistent Ensemble of Temperature (Version 1.2). World Data Center for Climate (WDCC) at DKRZ. https://www.wdc-climate.de/ui/entry?acronym=DCENT_MLE_v1_2

BibTeX RIS
Contact typePersonORCIDOrganization
Contact
Mr. Bruce T. T. Calvert
0000-0002-1124-9632
-
Author
Mr. Bruce T. T. Calvert
0000-0002-1124-9632
-
Investigator
Mr. Bruce T. T. Calvert
0000-0002-1124-9632
-

Cites

[1] DOI Calvert, Bruce T. T. (2024). Improving global temperature datasets to better account for non‐uniform warming. doi:10.1002/qj.4791
[2] DOI Brohan, P.; Kennedy, J. J.; Harris, I.; Tett, S. F. B.; Jones, P. D. (2006). Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: A new data set from 1850. doi:10.1029/2005JD006548
[3] DOI Chan, Duo; Gebbie, Geoffrey; Huybers, Peter. (2023). Global and Regional Discrepancies between Early-Twentieth-Century Coastal Air and Sea Surface Temperature Detected by a Coupled Energy-Balance Analysis. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0569.1

Is related to

[1] DOI Calvert, Bruce. (2024). Maximum Likelihood Estimates of Temperatures using Data from the Hadley Centre and the Climate Research Unit (Version 1.2). doi:10.26050/WDCC/HadCRU_MLE_v1.2

Is new version of

[1] DOI Calvert, Bruce. (2024). Maximum Likelihood Estimates of Temperatures using Data from the Dynamically Consistent Ensemble of Temperature (Version 1.0). doi:10.26050/WDCC/DCENT_MLE_v1_0
[2] DOI Calvert, Bruce. (2025). Maximum Likelihood Estimates of Temperatures using Data from the Dynamically Consistent Ensemble of Temperature (Version 1.1). doi:10.26050/WDCC/DCENT_MLE_v1_1

Is derived from

[1] DOI Danielson, Jeffrey J.; Gesch, Dean B. (2011). Global multi-resolution terrain elevation data 2010 (GMTED2010). doi:10.3133/ofr20111073
[2] DOI Gent, Peter R.; Danabasoglu, Gokhan; Donner, Leo J.; Holland, Marika M.; Hunke, Elizabeth C.; Jayne, Steve R.; Lawrence, David M.; Neale, Richard B.; Rasch, Philip J.; Vertenstein, Mariana; Worley, Patrick H.; Yang, Zong-Liang; Zhang, Minghua. (2011). The Community Climate System Model Version 4. doi:10.1175/2011jcli4083.1
[3] DOI Good, Simon; Fiedler, Emma; Mao, Chongyuan; Martin, Matthew J.; Maycock, Adam; Reid, Rebecca; Roberts-Jones, Jonah; Searle, Toby; Waters, Jennifer; While, James; Worsfold, Mark. (2020). The Current Configuration of the OSTIA System for Operational Production of Foundation Sea Surface Temperature and Ice Concentration Analyses. doi:10.3390/rs12040720
[4] DOI Titchner, Holly A.; Rayner, Nick A. (2014). The Met Office Hadley Centre sea ice and sea surface temperature data set, version 2: 1. Sea ice concentrations. doi:10.1002/2013jd020316
[5] DOI Walsh, J. E.; Chapman, W. L.; Fetterer, F.; Stewart, S. (2019). Gridded Monthly Sea Ice Extent and Concentration, 1850 Onward, Version 2. doi:10.7265/jj4s-tq79
[6] DOI Chan, Duo; Gebbie, Geoffrey; Huybers, Peter. (2024). An Improved Ensemble of Land Surface Air Temperatures Since 1880 Using Revised Pair-Wise Homogenization Algorithms Accounting for Autocorrelation. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0338.1
[7] DOI Chan, Duo; Gebbie, Geoffrey; Huybers, Peter; Kent, Elizabeth C. (2024). A Dynamically Consistent ENsemble of Temperature at the Earth surface since 1850 from the DCENT dataset. doi:10.1038/s41597-024-03742-x
[8] DOI Menne, Matthew, J.; Williams, Claude N.; Gleason, Byron E.; Rennie, J. Jared; Lawrimore, Jay H. (2018). The Global Historical Climatology Network Monthly Temperature Dataset, Version 4. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0094.1
[9] DOI Ishii, Masayoshi; Nishimura, Akio; Yasui, Soichiro; Hirahara, Shoji. (2024). Historical High-Resolution Daily SST Analysis (COBE-SST3) with Consistency to Monthly Land Surface Air Temperature. doi:10.2151/jmsj.2025-002
[10] DOI Meier, W. N.; F. Fetterer; A. K. Windnagel; J. S. Stewart; Stafford, T. (2026). NOAA/NSIDC Climate Data Record of Passive Microwave Sea Ice Concentration, Version 6. doi:10.7265/b18j-z797
[11] DOI Chan, D.; Chan, S.C.; Siddons, J.T.; Cable, A.; Faulkner, A.; Cornes, R.C.; Kent, E.C.; Gebbie, G.; Huybers, P. (2026). DCENT-I: A Globally Infilled Extension of the Dynamically Consistent ENsemble of Temperature Dataset. doi:10.1002/gdj3.70054

Attached Datasets ( 9 )

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Parent project(s)

Maximum Likelihood Estimates of Temperatures using Data from the Dynamically Consistent Ensemble of Temperature

[Entry acronym: DCENT_MLE_v1_2] [Entry id: 5369813]